Intensifying Rhetorical Battle Among Ethiopia and Eritrean Government Triggers Anxieties of Armed Clash

Mounting apprehensions have emerged about the potential of military engagement among Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as confrontational language has escalated in the past few weeks.

What Has Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for entry to the maritime outlet through Eritrean territory has sparked a intense verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister initially stated publicly in last year that his country's sea access was an crucial concern, statements that Eritrean authorities rejected.

Relations between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopian rule in 1993, making it cut off from the sea.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which numerous people lost their lives.

Current Remarks from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted sovereignty of Eritrea's southern port of the port of Assab – some 60 km from the boundary - and hinted at the wish to seize it militarily.

On 1 September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "mistake" of losing entry to the sea as a result of Eritrean independence would be "corrected soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

Amid continuous warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been restricted to short statements on social media from Communications Head Yemane G..

Officials have denied Ethiopian requests for access to the Red Sea describing it as "risky" and a "negative policy" of "expansionism" – a policy of claiming back former lands.

Eritrean authorities alerted on mid-September that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have major implications for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "boundary that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Movements on the Border

Currently, there are few indications of significant troop deployments in the frontier regions between the both nations.

However, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed graduation ceremonies of thousands of cadets at multiple army bases.

The leader of human resources department of the armed forces, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, stated recently in an interview that the military was in a "reliable position" as "many thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our enemies".

Previous Background of the Dispute

For over fifty years from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by colonial powers.

Following World War II, it was then controlled by the British administration before evolving into a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor ended this arrangement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A three-decade long civil war occurred, finishing with the government's loss in 1991. Independence was then approved by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were good relations between the leadership in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they clashed over the specific demarcation of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Although this concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2000, it was partially applied, and the neighbors remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The two signed a statement that the conflict was concluded – a move that earned Abiy the prestigious award.

The neighboring states were then partners in the country's 2020-2022 civil war in the northern region.

But diplomatic connections have later worsened again.