A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. Both authors two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified points, he stated. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
